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Changes in tick transmission risk of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever linked to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park

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Project website – Kirsten Koehler and Leah Colton

At Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) there is currently little risk of being bitten by the Rocky Mountain wood tick (Dermacentor andersoni), an arthropod vector of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. However, future climate change in Colorado could result in an increase in this risk. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a collaborative climate prediction model administered by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Using this model, future maximum and minimum temperature changes were evaluated for RMNP and the surrounding area. An analysis was conducted to evaluate whether changes in tick distribution might occur under either of two different climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). If Rocky Mountain wood ticks expand their distribution in the park as a consequence of climate change,  this could increase the risk for visitors to be bitten by a tick and become ill with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Maps were generated demonstrating the expansion of tick populations into the park if temperatures increase as projected in our scenarios. These areas also represent areas of increased risk of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever transmission to visitors.